It is a rare occurrence that no Premier League manager loses their job until mid-November. Fulham broke that run when they fired Slavisa Jokanovic before the international break and replaced him with former Leicester boss Claudio Ranieri.

Ranieri’s first match as Fulham manager is against Mark Hughes. Hughes was one of the sack race favourites and with good reason. In 20 Premier League matches since he took over, Southampton have won just three times. Saints have lost 10 over that period, with the draw probably saving Hughes’ job up until now. They have scored just 16 goals and conceded 33.

Hughes saved the south coast club from the drop last season. It is almost tradition that a manager who avoids relegation on a short-term deal is given a new contract. Southampton did not break such a rich Premier League tradition, though perhaps history suggests they should have done. Short-term results earning a longer deal might seem fair, but it all too often results in a cycle of mid-season hiring and firing (just ask Sunderland fans).

Southampton are far from playing perfect football, yet there’s an argument they have been unfortunate. They are massively underperforming their expected goals. This may be because of stupendous goalkeeping, but – as anyone who has watched Southampton this season will know – this is largely down to poor finishing. Hughes’ selection is to blame for this in part. Even so, Southampton should have scored more than the eight they have managed so far.

At the other end of the pitch things have not been great either. Southampton’s 21 conceded is far from the worst record in the league (this weekend’s opponents have conceded 10 more), and there have been improvements of late, but only Fulham, Brighton and Burnley have a higher non-penalty expected goals against.

Stoke’s defence got gradually worse under Hughes. Southampton’s back line looks similarly flimsy. The combination of wasting chances and leaking goal scoring opportunities is not a good one.

Hughes is a man under pressure. Failure to beat Watford or Newcastle at home in his last two might have put him into must-win territory. Away days in west London and Leicester in their next two are crucial before they face Manchester United and Tottenham.

This weekend’s clash at Craven Cottage is obviously huge for Fulham and Ranieri too. Fulham have lost every match they have played since 25^th September and play Chelsea after this one. It’s hardly panic stations at this time of year, but they will be wary of being cut adrift as they are already three points off safety.

Victory this weekend, on the other hand, would put Fulham level on points with 17^th-placed Southampton. The gloomy days of Jokanovic’s final weeks in the job would be almost forgotten.

Hughes walked a tightrope for months at Stoke, and he’s mastering it again at Southampton. Defeat this weekend, however, could be the final straw.

With points tallies very low in the bottom-half of the table this season, the idea of a must-win match in November is bizarre. This is about as close as it gets for Southampton, though, and a positive start against a rival is invaluable for Ranieri before a tougher run of fixtures.

Four points separate the bottom seven teams. The head-to-head matches will go a long way to deciding which teams remains in the Premier League. With hope filling the west London air, this is about as tough a start as it could have been for Ranieri. Expectation against a fellow relegation candidate is a more important, more daunting task than the relative relaxation of avoiding humiliation against a top six side.

We might not have started our advent calendars and are not yet a third of the way through the season, but this is one of the biggest matches of the Premier League campaign to date.

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